Why the Trump-Harris presidential race is still wide open – Technologist

Four weeks ago, she looked certain to win. Kamala Harris had triumphed at the Chicago Democratic Convention in August, replacing a diminished Joe Biden, and dominated Donald Trump in her only debate on September 10. Her victory in the election on November 5 seemed to be a foregone conclusion. But now, with only four weeks to go, nothing seems certain anymore. The very fact that the question still needs to be asked confirms that Trump has not lost the race.

Polls aggregated by the New York Times give Harris a win provided she persuades Pennsylvania, which has 19 electors. Trump holds a one-point lead in this key state. Harris has a one- to two-point lead in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump leads by one to two points in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, other swing states. The fog is complete.

According to the statistician Nate Silver, one of the few who warned of the possibility of a Trump victory in 2016, Harris’s chances of winning are now 54.7%, whereas he was still expecting a Trump victory in mid-September. But he deems her lead to be very small. Punters on the online site Polymarket give Trump a 52.7% chance of winning. In short, Harris’s lead remains insufficient to guarantee a victory.

Small grains of sand

But, beyond the polls, small grains of sand have accumulated in recent weeks in the Harris campaign. Firstly, Trump, who had become less visible – and less audible – over the summer, is once again back dominating the agenda. The Republican took the lead during the response to Hurricane Helene on September 27, which, with over 200 dead, proved to be the deadliest since Katrina submerged New Orleans in 2005. Absent from the stricken areas for the first few days, Biden and Harris conveyed a feeling of indifference to the disaster victims in the Appalachian mountains. The Republican camp seized on this failure and spread the fear that Americans would not be able to count on the Democrats in the event of misfortune.

Republicans used the same tactic when they spread a rumor accusing Haitians of eating the cats of residents of the small town of Springfield, Ohio. The accusation was false, debunked by the press, but the Trump camp’s objective was achieved: to draw America’s attention to a town of 50,000 inhabitants that has seen 20,000 Haitians arrive in the space of a few years, and to panic the rest of America, worried about suffering the same fate.

The campaign is largely, but not exclusively, about image and sentiment. Since the start of the campaign, Trump has focused on two issues: inflation and illegal immigration. Inflation, which has reached 20% since Biden took office, continues to weigh on households. Harris touts the administration’s measures in favor of household budgets, but can’t shake off its record. Even if inflation is fading, Americans still remember how much lower prices were under Trump. Added to this is the surge in real estate prices and rates, which is hampering home ownership. The vice president did, however, get some good news with the excellent September employment figures, published on Friday, October 4, confirming the economy’s soft landing.

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