A long road riddled with pitfalls – Technologist

Many think about it in hushed tones, but no one talks about it without the utmost caution. As the war rages on, more than 30 months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, neither Kyiv nor Moscow are ready for a ceasefire and the idea of negotiations remains as embryonic as ever. Yet this prospect is set to fuel discussions in the corridors of the 79^th United Nations General Assembly, which takes place from Sunday, September 22, to Friday, September 27, in New York, in the presence of Volodymyr Zelensky.

After a speech at the UN on Wednesday, the Ukrainian president will be received at the White House the following day, to present US President Joe Biden with the “plan for victory” he has been concocting in the greatest secrecy for several weeks. For Kyiv, this means making a new military effort, with the support of Western allies, particularly the Americans, in the hope of forcing President Vladimir Putin’s Russia to sit down at the negotiating table. In an interview with ABC, due to be broadcast on Tuesday, Zelensky declared that Ukraine was “closer to peace than we think,” believing that this fall would be “decisive.”

The possibility of opening peace talks between the two sides remains highly uncertain, however, as the road ahead seems so fraught with pitfalls. In New York, no contact is planned between Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister – representing the head of the Kremlin, absent once again – and his Western counterparts, even if they are likely to cross paths at a Security Council meeting devoted to the war in Ukraine on Tuesday.

‘Situation on the front is complicated’

“We’re still a long way from anything concrete, but people are starting to think about the day after,” a high-ranking diplomat told Le Monde. The situation on the ground and the international context, starting with the electoral campaign in the US, are prompting Zelensky and certain Western capitals to imagine a way out of the conflict, without laying down their arms.

“Negotiations will come sooner or later, because the situation on the front is complicated, and the Ukrainians are exhausted,” said a foreign minister from Europe, usually one of the firmest on Moscow. The Russians are advancing in Donbas and the intensive bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure heralds a terrible winter for the civilian population.

This summer’s Ukrainian conquest of part of Russia’s Kursk region certainly demonstrated Kyiv’s ability to take the initiative in the military arena. This operation puts pressure on the Kremlin. If these areas remain under Ukrainian control, they could become a territorial bargaining chip in the event of negotiations. But this offensive, which has taken Kyiv’s allies by surprise, is raising discreet questions among these countries, which are rather divided on the strategic appropriateness of such a move.

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