Is a decrease in demand really in sight? – Technologist

“We are on track to see all fossil fuels peak before 2030.” In autumn 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that coal, gas and oil consumption could stop growing in the coming years, even in the absence of additional climate commitments from governments. This unprecedented projection appears in the “World Energy Outlook” (WEO), the organization’s annual report, considered the bible of the energy sector.

“There’s a taboo in the traditional energy sector against suggesting that demand for the three fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – could go into permanent decline,” explained Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA. “But according to new projections from the International Energy Agency, this age of seemingly relentless growth is set to come to an end this decade.” He hastened to point out, however, that the anticipated decline remains far short of the efforts needed to keep warming below 1.5°C, the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement.

One year on, as the organization prepares to publish the 2024 edition of the WEO on Wednesday, October 16, this announcement continues to spark debate. It has fueled criticism from some industry players, especially as the IEA published its first roadmap toward carbon neutrality in 2021, signaling its commitment to meeting the climate challenge and the need to decarbonize the sector.

‘Analysis of current trends’

At the end of September, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – where Birol worked for several years – reaffirmed that a move away from fossil fuels was a “fantasy.” Unsurprisingly, oil and gas executives share this view. “In the real world, the current transition is clearly failing,” said Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser in March at a meeting of industry representatives in Texas, US. He pointed out that solar and wind energies still provide only a fraction of the world’s energy, despite major investments, and that the energy needs of countries in the South are set to rise sharply.

In the US, the world’s leading oil and gas producer, Republican representatives described the IEA as the “energy transition cheerleader.” Experts such as Robert McNally, who has advised Republican lawmakers, claim that the organization is “bullying the world’s respected energy authority to mislead the world into thinking that oil and gas demand will soon peak,” claiming that the IEA’s long-term energy forecasts can “no longer be trusted.”

The IEA, which operates under the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), disputes these accusations and insists that its analyses are based on figures and data. “The IEA doesn’t have a crystal ball and doesn’t predict the future, but it analyzes current trends to indicate what is likely to happen,” explained Ines Bouacida, a climate and energy researcher at the Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales. “For a long time, it has been very cautious in its estimates.”

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